After the U.S. strike killing Iranian general Qasim Suleimani in Iraq, U.S. critics warned that the president’s lack of strategy may escalate to outright war with Iran. After Iran’s clearly muted retaliatory strike last night and President Trump’s address this morning it seems that the escalation many commentators feared will be avoided. Assuming that is the case, many Americans’ attention will turn back to other matters and any future mention of these events will focus on the tragedies that almost ensued. Before we all breathe our sigh of relief, however, at avoiding another war, I would like to point out the implications of the strike for Iraqis who have, in one form or another, been living in the conditions of war since 2003. For Iraqi society, it seems the damage may already have been done. Two months ago, I wrote a blogpost explaining the significance of popular demonstrations which had been going on in many Iraqi cities since October 1, 2019. In it, I stressed the significance of the multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian participation of Iraqis who together called for broad sweeping reforms ending the sectarian-based political system. The cry of these protestors was “Nahnu Nureed Watana!” It literally means “we want our country!” This was a confrontation, not between Sunni and Shia Iraqis, but between a system of corrupt political elites and the majority of Iraqi citizens, who demanded better.
The success of these demonstrators in continuing their street demonstrations and maintaining a united front in doing so were Iraqis’ greatest hopes for achieving truly democratic government in decades! The reforms demanded by the demonstrators were broad sweeping and would, no doubt, have proved difficult to achieve, as it would have required many entrenched politicians to give up their positions. Most analysts, myself included, pinned any chances of success on the ability of the Iraqi demonstrators to keep the demonstrations united along a non-sectarian front. Conversely, the best hope of the Iraqi political elite was to divide Iraqis again by forcing sectarian conflict. Chief among those who hoped to divide Iraqis was Iran, whose proxies in Iraq had thus far failed to turn Shia and Sunni Iraqis against each other (Iran and its proxy forces in Iraq are Shia). In fact, on November 4, Iraqi protesters attacked the Iranian embassy in protest of Iranian influence in Iraq, demonstrating the widespread rejection, among Iraqis, of Iran’s overbearing influence in Iraqi politics. These were not Sunnis attacking the embassy because Iran is Shia, they were Sunni and Shia Iraqis alike demonstrating their rejection of foreign influence. The cries of the protesters remained resilient… “we want our country!” Only after the irresponsible decision to kill Qasim Suleimani on Iraqi soil were the voices of Iraqi citizens drowned out by the sounds of Iran-controlled militias chanting “death to America” from inside the charred walls of the U.S. embassy. Qasim Suleimani was everything that the supporters of the recent U.S. strike say he was. Indeed, he had the blood of Americans and others on his hands. Whether killing Suleimani prevented an imminent attack, as the U.S. administration claims, is yet to be determined. What is clear is that the Iraqi people’s best shot at a real democratic system was just taken away from them. The united front of demonstrators and their demands for reform now risk being overshadowed by tensions between Iran, the U.S., and the Iraqi government, who has demanded a full American withdrawal. As a result, they may not be able to maintain the pressure needed to force real reform in their political system. The world may have one less murderer after the killing of Suleimani, but the U.S. strike also helped ensure the continuation of Iran’s influence in Iraq, to the detriment of U.S. interests and, more importantly, the well-being of forty million Iraqi citizens.
2 Comments
Issa
1/8/2020 08:01:07 pm
I do not want the American withdrawal from its bases in Iraq to ensure the stability of the region in general and the stability of Iraq in particularly not to be affiliated with any specific party and the abolition of some parties, because the large number of parties in the country may cause an escalation in violence and sow discrimination between the Iraqi people. On the other hand, the explosions that were taking place and acts of sabotage were caused by the Iranian-backed militias, so Iran want Iraq to become a war zone and settle its accounts away from its land and the only victim is the Iraqi people.
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ELI DALLAL
1/10/2020 12:18:24 am
I don't believe that the American strike has any effect on the demonstrations in Iraq . They were gunned down by snipers from the Iran supporting militiias just as the demonstrators were gunned down in Iran . Quasm Sulimany probably was on a trip planning and organizing how drown the protest in Lebanon and
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Marcus Smith, PhDMarcus is a historian specializing in Modern Middle East History CategoriesArchives |